Introduction

As I have previously written, a butterfly race strategy on autopilot is the key to success for a stroke that if not executed properly, can look like a shriveled caterpillar wiggling its way to the wall.

Therefore, this past weekend, at the FINA Champions Series in Shenzhen, China, when Daiya Seto became the third-fastest performer ever in the 200 LCM Butterfly with a time of 1:52.53*, a new Asian record, I was curious what story his race strategy would tell. (*FYI: #1 is Kristof Milak @ 1:50.73 from July 2019, and #2 is Michael Phelps @ 1:51.51 from July 2009.)

Now, on one hand, his performance should not be too surprising as:

he was already a top-10 performer with his second-place finish of 1:53.86, behind Milak, at the July 2019 World Championships, and
he is coming off some stellar swims from the International Swimming League final last month in Las Vegas, including a 400 SCM IM world record

However, on the other hand, what is surprising is:

it is January, and swimmers historically do not swim well in January (or December, with the ISL, for that matter) due to heavy training, and
he dropped 1.33 seconds, or 1.17%, off a best-time in six-months!

It is this second point, the amount of time he dropped in less than a full season, that peaked my interest into his race strategy…

How Did He Do It?

How did he drop 1.33 seconds, or 1.17%, off a best-time in six-months? Well training is always the first, and most important, factor. However, when it comes to racing, the training is only effective if a proper race strategy is executed.

So, when you dive a little deeper (which will always be my favorite pun when it comes to swimming stats) into Daiya Seto’s race strategy for the 200 LCM butterfly, compared with a few other benchmarks of the same race, there are two main themes:

Split Allocation
Stroke Tempo

Split Allocation

As previously stated, nobody descends their 50’s in a 200 LCM Butterfly, and Daiya Seto is consistent with that trend. His split allocation of front-half vs. back-half, as you will see below, is (1) consistent across both his races being measured and (2) in line with other benchmarks.

he swam nearly the same race strategy in both of his races, with a front-half % / back-half % split of:
- Seto (January 2020): 1:52.53 = 47.4% / 52.6%
- Seto (July 2019): 1:53.86 = 47.5% / 52.5%
his race strategy is in range of the top two performances ever, as well as the MeenaMethod relative race strategy benchmark:
- Milak (July 2019): 1:50.73 = 47.8% / 52.2%
- Phelps (July 2009): 1:51.51 = 47.4% / 52.6%
- MeenaMethod: 1:54.75 = 47.7% / 52.3%

Conclusion on Split Allocation

Seto knows, and has proven he can execute, his race strategy from a split allocation perspective. He has confidence in his training that he can maintain a tight range (i.e., close) across his laps so that he efficiently distributes energy throughout the race.

Stroke Count and Stroke Tempo

Different strokes for different folks is a foundation of swimming, and particularly the MeenaMethod.

Daiya Seto is 5’9”, while Kristof Milak is 6’3” and Michael Phelps is 6’4”, respectfully. Therefore, it is not fair to compare stroke count and tempo rates against swimmers who have a height differential of 6-7 inches which implies a wingspan differential of 6-7 inches.

So, is comparing Seto’s 87 strokes to Milak’s 75 strokes fair? Not really. But comparing Seto v. Seto is fair, and so is Milak v. Phelps. So let us do that:

Seto v. Seto
- Seto (January 2020): 83 total strokes with a race tempo of 0.74 strokes per second
- Seto (July 2019): 87 total strokes with a race tempo of 0.76 strokes per second
Milak v. Phelps
- Milak (July 2019): 75 total strokes with a race tempo of 0.68 strokes per second
- Phelps (July 2009): 76 total strokes with a race tempo of 0.68 strokes per second

Conclusion on Stroke Count and Stroke Tempo

By taking four less strokes in January 2020 as opposed to six-months earlier in July 2019, Seto was able to find and maintain his “easy speed” earlier on in the race. As you will see in the data chart below, Seto took two less strokes on the first lap in January 2020 (18 vs 20 strokes) while swimming 0.23 seconds faster. Said differently, he used less energy to swim faster so he had more left in the tank to allocate to other laps, which is a reason why each lap was faster in January than in July.

Furthermore, a comparison of Milak and Phelps supports the stroke tempo for Seto. Since Seto is shorter in height (and, theoretically, wingspan) than both Milak and Phelps, it makes sense that he would take more strokes per lap and his tempo would be higher than 0.68. How much higher? Well, after his swim last month it looks like he found his rhythm at 0.74 strokes per second.

The Data

Footnotes

Author: Elliot Meena

Published: January 21, 2020

Sources: International Swimming Federation (“FINA”), International Swimming League (“ISL”)

Notes:

SCM: Short-Course-Meters (i.e., a 25-meter pool)
LCM: Long-Course-Meters (i.e., a 50-meter pool)