Introduction

Now that the worst kept secret in swimming has been revealed and Michael Phelps is officially back in the water, let us take a look at how his 100 LCM Butterfly from the Mesa Grand Prix last weekend stacks up to some of his other 100 LCM Butterfly performances.

As many of you know, at the 2012 Olympics Phelps became the first swimmer to win three consecutive Gold Medals in the same event with his 100 LCM Butterfly victory. And it certainly was not a surprise considering he has owned that event his entire career. He broke the LCM National Age Group record as an 8 & Under with a time of 1:08.15 (if my memory serves correct), which stood until not long ago, and has essentially been undefeated ever since.

On a personal note, I had my first shot at Phelps in 1996 when he and I ‘raced’ at a Dynamo meet in Atlanta. Unfortunately for me though, he beat me by a whole lap so it was not much of a race.

But, relatively speaking, it was not easy for Phelps to claim three straight golds. His average margin of victory across the 2004, 2008, and 2012 100 LCM Butterfly Individual Finals was only 0.09 seconds, or 0.18%.

Let us dive in to see why…

Here is a look at Phelps times vs. the second place finisher from the past three Olympiads:

Exhibit 1
Top 2 Finishers for the Male 100 LCM Butterfly at 2004, 2008, and 2012 Olympics
Competition / Phelps / 2nd Place / Difference / Phelps > 2nd

2004 Olympics / 51.25 / 51.29 / 0.04 / 0.08%
2008 Olympics / 50.58 / 50.59 / 0.01 / 0.02%
2012 Olympics / 51.21 / 51.44 / 0.23 / 0.45%

So how did he three-peat? Consistency. Phelps undoubtedly got stronger over those eight years, and as a result his splits improved, but strategy is not all about time. What was consistent was his stroke count.

In 2004, Phelps took 17 strokes his first 50 and 19 strokes his second. In 2008 he stretched to 16.50 strokes (i.e., there was a bit of a glide after his 16th stroke) in his first 50 while remaining at 19 strokes his second. And in 2012, he repeated his 16.5 strokes and stretched his second to 18.5 strokes.

Also worth noting, his underwater kicks increased from 8 to 10 on his first lap and 9 to 11 on his second lap. Although I admit this stat was a little difficult to validate as the camera was not always focused on Phelps.

For comparison purposes, Michael Cavic, who takes more kicks underwater (averaging two more per lap but with a smaller wavelength than Phelps), managed to increase his stroke count from 2008 to 2012. In 2008, he took 16 strokes his first lap and 18.5 strokes his second. In fact, you could argue with how infamous his glide to the finish has become it could be considered more like 18.999999 strokes. Either way, in 2012, he increased his first lap to 17.5 (maybe 18, poor video feed) and his second lap to 20 strokes. The result for Cavic in 2012 was a 51.81, tied for fourth place.

Eight years of growing up and Phelps did not stray at all from the 100 LCM Butterfly strategy that he knew best. Therefore, it is not surprising that after ~two years without competing, at the Mesa Grand Prix Phelps took 16.5 strokes his first lap and 18.5 his second.

His time was of course a bit slower, ~3.1% off his PR, so we can expect that to change a bit, but do not expect much else about his race to change.

Here are the stroke counts for Phelps from the past three Olympiads and the recent Mesa Grand Prix:

Exhibit 2
A Comparison of Phelps LCM 100 Butterfly Stroke Count Over the Years
Competition: 1st Lap / 2nd Lap

2004 Olympics: 17 / 19
2008 Olympics: 16.5 / 19
2012 Olympics: 16.5 / 18.5

Footnotes

Author: Elliot Meena

Published: May 1, 2014

Sources: Omega Timing, USA Swimming, NBC Olympics

Notes:

LCM: Long-Course-Meters (i.e., a 50-meter pool)